I recently saw a sign that said: “Modern man is one who drives a mortgaged car on a bond-financed highway with credit card gas.” It’s no secret, the US has a debt problem.
Actually, the whole world has a debt problem. In fact, the world’s debt is currently 400% of the GDP. On May 23rd of this year, the IMF released a statement that said: “The world is facing the greatest headwinds since WWII.”
Historically, debt cycles typically run 75 to 100 years. Right now, we are peaking in one. Governments have 4 choices as to what they can do when the top pf a debt cycle is reached.
1. Austerity (they can lower expenses and balance the budget)
2. Restructure the debt
3. Default on obligations (interesting fact, Japan holds 18.28% and China holds 14.87% of all US debt)
4. Print money and deficit spend, which bails out the people
Each choice has consequences. It is tempting to simply turn a blind eye to what’s happening around us, because everything seems so out of our control. Being willing to look at the Macro signs is critical to ensuring you are positioned correctly to economically survive and even thrive.
We are naturally drawn to look at or focus on micro signs around us. Here is what this might look like:
#1. Standing at the gas pump trying to figure out why it’s costing you so much;
#2. Chewing on a chicken leg and complaining about how expensive it is. Macro signs are more difficult to see because we are immersed in them…like a fish in water. They are invisible. A fish doesn’t know what water is because it is their environment.
Which of the above four choices do you think will most likely occur? I ask because it’s important. In fact, Fortunes will be made and lost on the answer to that question. If you even slightly care about the health of your finances, I implore you to consider the government’s likely choice.
If you believe (like I do) that they will print money and deficit spend (option 4), consider this example I recently heard of what the Fed printing money looks like:
“If I have the only bottle of water within 100 miles and you are really thirsty…I mean you are dying of thirst…You’d likely be willing to pay a lot of money for that one bottle. But if I have 5 bottles, you might buy all 5, but you’d probably negotiate to pay less. If I have 1M bottles, you won’t pay much at all…because there’s so many of them.”
This illustrates what is currently happening and it explains why Cash is Trash. As I wrote in last month’s letter, most banks are not significantly raising deposit rates because their balance sheets are flooded with cash. Many banks are now saying they don’t even want more deposits. If that’s true, why would they pay higher interest to attract more of them?
All this brings us back to a statement I’ve made before…“the right real estate managed by the right team, is about as good as it gets for growing and protecting your wealth in uncertain times.”
One final thought, if you still have money invested in the markets, remember that the
bull goes up by the stairs and the bear goes out the window. Now might be a great time to consider taking profits off the table and redeploying them to risk-adjusted options. Give us a call, we’d love to have a conversation with you.
We have a couple opportunities we are raising funds for.
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