As I write this, I’ve just returned from a series of investor dinner meetings in California. I love being involved and presenting at these events, because I get to be with you in person. My favorite part of each event is the Q&A time. When I open the floor, and you ask questions that are pressing on your minds.
There are three reoccurring questions that you’ve been bringing up at our events, and as we speak with you over the phone.
These are all huge topics. I could write a book on each one of them, but here are some of my summarized thoughts.
The Banking Crisis
First, there is a banking crisis at hand. That truth is not being openly talked about enough in the media. I realize the public narrative needs to protect the system from panic. However, it doesn’t diminish the fact that signs of a looming crisis are all around us.
For instance, Moody’s Rating Service recently downgraded ten regional banks and put sixteen more on notice. Moody cited
“deteriorating collateral for outstanding loans and other issues.” The rating reduction will make it more expensive for these lenders to borrow funds.
Banks are facing issues on two fronts. First, they are facing unrealized losses in their bond portfolios. We’ve discussed this before. As rates have risen, the value of the low interest US Treasuries being held by banks have fallen significantly. In other words, the market value of their bonds has fallen. So,
if they sell, the result will be significant loss.
The second issue is the declining value of the commercial real estate banks hold loans on. Specifically, office buildings. Remote work is the new normal. As downtown leases come up for renewal, tenants are either closing offices or substantially reducing the square footage they need. This has resulted in falling rents. When you combine that with rising refinancing rates, building owners have plenty of reason to turn their keys over to the bank and walk away. Hence the decision by Moody’s to downgrade. Be very cautious of a bank offering a CD interest rate that seems too good to be true and think twice about having deposits in a bank that exceed the FDIC Insurance limits ($250,000).
Fortunately, the only office real estate 3D Money is invested in is 100% occupied by our own purposes. All our other real estate is either work force housing, industrial manufacturing, or agricultural. All are very defensive in nature. Therefore, we believe to be well insulated from a potential downturn in values. This brings us to the second area you are talking to us about.
Real Estate Market Conditions
As I stated in last month’s letter, real estate is the “800-pound gorilla,” because it is the largest asset class. Half of global wealth is in real estate. But the thing is, it’s hard to define real estate as a single asset class. There are many kinds of real estate separated by an unlimited number of geographic and demographic anomalies. For instance, you can have a property on one side of the road that is in a desirable location, while the other side of the road is not. This plays out in infinite ways. As mentioned above, 3D Money has strategically chosen real estate that we believe is highly insulated from market fluctuations. Rental income has a high degree of stability and resilience associated with it. For this reason, we do not foresee a national downturn in real estate values having a negative effect on our business model. Systemic liquidity and a contraction in lending are currently our biggest challenge. However, this has had minimal impact on our existing portfolio, as our loans are at long term fixed rates.
Digital Currency
It’s impossible to address this question without discussing certain Spiritual realities. If you are a Jesus Follower and have read “the Book,” you know how this world ends. There will be one world government! There will be one world currency! The Anti-Christ will demand that you take a numeric mark, basically pledging alliance to him. That “mark” will logically be connected and tracked through digital means. Failure to comply will prevent you from doing commerce.
This is not to say that Fed Now or other digital currencies currently proposed are the end game. However, we would be naive to not see them as forerunners to that eventual end. This truth cannot be avoided. Therefore, as a Jesus Follower, first and foremost, I must place myself at the mercy of our loving and gracious Heavenly Father. Our entire future is dependent on His Sovereignty!
Having said that, we still need to be vigilant and prudent. I apologize if the following statement seems self-serving, but I truly believe hard assets are the best safe harbor to what’s coming. This is why our investment focus is where it is! We are in an age of “real stuff,” and we can expect tangibles to provide greater security and privacy in the digital currency future we face. We are obviously strong supporters of investing in real estate. However, gold, silver, art, classic cars, wine, antiques, etc. are also “real things” that will be increasingly utilized for trade and commerce as governments relentlessly pursue control over every aspect of our lives. In summary, digital currency is an eventuality that we cannot stop. That said, we can take certain preemptive actions to protect ourselves.
I close with this good news from Jesus: “I am the vine; you are the branches. If you remain in me and I in you, you will bear much fruit; apart from me you can do nothing.” John
Abiding in Faith,
Jeff Huston and the 3D Money Team
320-905-3306
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